Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Oklahoma City Thunder | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 19.3% | 80.7% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 18.1% | 81.9% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 10.0% | 90.0% | +12.1 | ✗ (14.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 44.6% | 55.4% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 44.8% | 55.2% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 47.8% | 52.2% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 47.8% | 52.2% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 42.9% | 57.1% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Oklahoma City Thunder -2 (108-110). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro * | 39 | 12-23 | 9-17 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 17 | - | |
| Caleb Martin * | 33 | 1-6 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 33 | 5-13 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 20 | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 29 | 5-10 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 13 | - | |
| Max Strus * | 17 | 4-11 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 2 | - | |
| Victor Oladipo | 31 | 4-8 | 2-5 | 2-3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 14 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 22 | 4-8 | 4-8 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 10 | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 18 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon | 14 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 9 | - |
Oklahoma City Thunder
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Giddey * | 36 | 9-15 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 11 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 22 | - | |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander * | 36 | 10-20 | 1-3 | 6-6 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 23 | - | |
| Luguentz Dort * | 33 | 6-12 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 14 | - | |
| Jalen Williams * | 30 | 6-10 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 13 | - | |
| Darius Bazley * | 30 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 4-7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 14 | - | |
| Aaron Wiggins | 24 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 13 | - | |
| Isaiah Joe | 17 | 0-5 | 0-4 | 3-3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - | |
| Mike Muscala | 9 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | - | |
| Aleksej Pokusevski | 8 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | |
| Eugene Omoruyi | 7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | |
| Tre Mann | 5 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
* = starter