Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Indiana Pacers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 60.0% | 40.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 38.6% | 61.4% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 44.0% | 56.0% | +1.3 | ✗ (6.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 50.6% | 49.4% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 58.9% | 41.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 58.7% | 41.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 58.7% | 41.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 51.6% | 48.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Indiana Pacers -5 (82-87). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Martin * | 39 | 3-8 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 35 | 8-18 | 0-0 | 6-7 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 22 | - | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 34 | 3-10 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 34 | 3-11 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 8 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 33 | 8-16 | 0-1 | 4-7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 20 | - | - | |
| Max Strus | 31 | 3-12 | 3-12 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Victor Oladipo | 18 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon | 12 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - |
Indiana Pacers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buddy Hield * | 35 | 8-16 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19 | - | - | |
| Andrew Nembhard * | 34 | 6-12 | 3-7 | 3-4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 18 | - | - | |
| Myles Turner * | 34 | 4-9 | 2-3 | 5-6 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 15 | - | - | |
| Tyrese Haliburton * | 32 | 0-9 | 0-6 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - | - | |
| Aaron Nesmith * | 29 | 5-12 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 12 | - | - | |
| Bennedict Mathurin | 28 | 2-7 | 1-6 | 4-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| T.J. McConnell | 17 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Oshae Brissett | 15 | 0-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Jalen Smith | 13 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 2-4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | - | - |
* = starter