Model Predictions
| Model | San Antonio Spurs | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 66.1% | 33.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 42.9% | 57.1% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 33.7% | 66.3% | +3.7 | ✗ (7.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 31.6% | 68.4% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 15.7% | 84.3% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 16.1% | 83.9% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 16.1% | 83.9% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 21.8% | 78.2% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Miami Heat -4 (111-115). Predictions use season-end ratings.
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Jones * | 35 | 2-8 | 0-1 | 6-8 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 | - | - | |
| Keldon Johnson * | 35 | 7-15 | 0-2 | 7-7 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21 | - | - | |
| Zach Collins * | 30 | 6-7 | 1-1 | 3-5 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 16 | - | - | |
| Romeo Langford * | 28 | 7-10 | 1-2 | 4-4 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 19 | - | - | |
| Malaki Branham * | 14 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Devin Vassell | 26 | 7-13 | 1-4 | 3-4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Doug McDermott | 24 | 5-8 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Josh Richardson | 22 | 1-7 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Charles Bassey | 17 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | - | - | |
| Isaiah Roby | 3 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry * | 39 | 4-7 | 3-6 | 1-1 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 36 | 8-16 | 5-8 | 2-4 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 23 | - | - | |
| Caleb Martin * | 36 | 4-9 | 3-6 | 3-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 32 | 11-16 | 0-1 | 8-10 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 30 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 32 | 5-11 | 0-1 | 2-5 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Victor Oladipo | 23 | 4-7 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Max Strus | 15 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon | 15 | 1-8 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 8 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 3-3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - |
* = starter