Model Predictions
| Model | Detroit Pistons | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 67.6% | 32.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 50.5% | 49.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 47.3% | 52.7% | +0.6 | ✗ (20.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 33.9% | 66.1% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 19.1% | 80.9% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 20.5% | 79.5% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 20.5% | 79.5% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 25.7% | 74.3% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Miami Heat -20 (96-116). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Detroit Pistons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bojan Bogdanovic * | 30 | 12-16 | 7-9 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 31 | - | - | |
| Isaiah Stewart * | 28 | 5-9 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Jaden Ivey * | 26 | 3-9 | 1-4 | 3-4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Killian Hayes * | 23 | 2-8 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 6 | - | - | |
| Marvin Bagley III * | 19 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Saddiq Bey | 30 | 4-10 | 1-3 | 5-5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Cory Joseph | 24 | 4-8 | 2-5 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Alec Burks | 21 | 6-13 | 4-10 | 2-3 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Jalen Duren | 17 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Kevin Knox II | 17 | 3-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro * | 37 | 12-17 | 2-4 | 8-8 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 34 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 34 | 9-16 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 21 | - | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 33 | 1-6 | 1-5 | 5-6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Caleb Martin * | 32 | 1-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Max Strus * | 29 | 4-11 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | - | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 27 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Victor Oladipo | 18 | 3-9 | 1-4 | 2-4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 15 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Nikola Jovic | 9 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Dru Smith | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter