Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Memphis Grizzlies | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 55.6% | 44.4% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 38.3% | 61.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 32.8% | 67.2% | +3.9 | ✓ (4.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 44.0% | 56.0% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 36.2% | 63.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 42.7% | 57.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 42.8% | 57.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 39.8% | 60.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Memphis Grizzlies +8 (101-93). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro * | 39 | 8-20 | 3-11 | 4-4 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 22 | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 38 | 5-13 | 0-0 | 5-5 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 11 | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 33 | 3-8 | 3-8 | 1-2 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 17 | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 33 | 6-11 | 1-2 | 5-8 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 22 | - | |
| Caleb Martin * | 33 | 6-10 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 6 | - | |
| Max Strus | 22 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 2-3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 14 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 14 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 11 | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon | 9 | 0-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
Memphis Grizzlies
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyus Jones * | 36 | 10-16 | 3-6 | 5-5 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 28 | 29 | - | |
| Dillon Brooks * | 34 | 7-22 | 2-11 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 2 | - | |
| David Roddy * | 33 | 2-8 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | - | |
| Santi Aldama * | 33 | 8-12 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 20 | - | |
| Steven Adams * | 27 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 7 | - | |
| Kennedy Chandler | 25 | 4-11 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 9 | - | |
| Brandon Clarke | 20 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 9 | - | |
| Xavier Tillman | 14 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | - | |
| Vince Williams Jr. | 13 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter