Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Boston Celtics | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 21.1% | 78.9% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 21.3% | 78.7% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 13.8% | 86.2% | +10.1 | ✗ (14.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 40.3% | 59.7% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 27.1% | 72.9% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 28.7% | 71.3% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 28.7% | 71.3% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 31.0% | 69.0% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Boston Celtics -4 (116-120). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro * | 38 | 10-19 | 6-10 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 26 | 18 | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 38 | 10-18 | 0-0 | 8-9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 22 | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 38 | 8-13 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 16 | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 35 | 12-21 | 0-1 | 1-3 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 24 | - | |
| Caleb Martin * | 26 | 4-9 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 2 | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 27 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 25 | 1-6 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | - | |
| Max Strus | 20 | 1-6 | 1-6 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6 | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon | 8 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - | |
| Udonis Haslem | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Boston Celtics
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Brown * | 45 | 12-23 | 5-11 | 8-9 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 37 | 33 | - | |
| Marcus Smart * | 42 | 8-14 | 1-7 | 1-4 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 19 | - | |
| Jayson Tatum * | 41 | 5-18 | 0-7 | 4-6 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 11 | - | |
| Al Horford * | 34 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 | - | |
| Derrick White * | 27 | 3-8 | 2-5 | 5-5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 13 | - | |
| Grant Williams | 33 | 6-8 | 4-6 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 18 | - | |
| Malcolm Brogdon | 21 | 2-7 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | - | |
| Luke Kornet | 10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | |
| Sam Hauser | 9 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | - |
* = starter