Model Predictions
| Model | Houston Rockets | Denver Nuggets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 24.7% | 75.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 32.9% | 67.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 37.9% | 62.1% | +2.7 | ✓ (17.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 33.3% | 66.7% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 11.3% | 88.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 18.6% | 81.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 18.6% | 81.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 23.6% | 76.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Denver Nuggets +20 (120-100). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Houston Rockets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Green * | 34 | 6-16 | 1-7 | 3-5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Kevin Porter Jr. * | 32 | 8-18 | 5-7 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 23 | - | - | |
| Jabari Smith Jr. * | 31 | 5-12 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 13 | - | - | |
| Alperen Sengun * | 29 | 8-12 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Eric Gordon * | 18 | 1-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Garrison Mathews | 20 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Kenyon Martin Jr. | 18 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Daishen Nix | 15 | 3-7 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Usman Garuba | 14 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - | - | |
| Tari Eason | 13 | 0-5 | 0-4 | 4-4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | - | - | |
| Bruno Fernando | 6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - | - | |
| Josh Christopher | 3 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | - | - |
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruce Brown * | 34 | 6-13 | 4-7 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Aaron Gordon * | 31 | 7-12 | 2-4 | 4-7 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 20 | - | - | |
| Jamal Murray * | 30 | 9-15 | 4-6 | 4-5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 26 | - | - | |
| Nikola Jokic * | 27 | 7-9 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 9 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 17 | - | - | |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope * | 24 | 2-7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | - | - | |
| Ish Smith | 22 | 3-10 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 6 | - | - | |
| Vlatko Cancar | 21 | 5-6 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Davon Reed | 20 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | - | - | |
| DeAndre Jordan | 18 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | - | - | |
| Christian Braun | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Zeke Nnaji | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Jack White | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter