Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Boston Celtics | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 21.1% | 78.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 21.3% | 78.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 13.8% | 86.2% | +10.1 | ✓ (2.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 40.3% | 59.7% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 27.1% | 72.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 28.7% | 71.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 28.7% | 71.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 31.0% | 69.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Boston Celtics +13 (134-121). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 38 | 10-19 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 17 | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 37 | 9-17 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 21 | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 37 | 6-14 | 1-6 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 9 | - | |
| Max Strus * | 35 | 7-12 | 5-10 | 4-4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 15 | - | |
| Caleb Martin * | 24 | 4-9 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 8 | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 25 | 6-9 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 19 | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 19 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 5 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 11 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | - | |
| Udonis Haslem | 9 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Boston Celtics
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayson Tatum * | 39 | 15-25 | 8-12 | 11-12 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 49 | 40 | - | |
| Marcus Smart * | 34 | 3-7 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 18 | - | |
| Al Horford * | 33 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 14 | - | |
| Jaylen Brown * | 28 | 10-18 | 1-6 | 5-6 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 20 | - | |
| Derrick White * | 25 | 6-10 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 12 | - | |
| Grant Williams | 31 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | - | |
| Malcolm Brogdon | 26 | 7-10 | 5-7 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 18 | - | |
| Luke Kornet | 14 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | - | |
| Sam Hauser | 7 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter