Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Atlanta Hawks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 38.4% | 61.6% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 41.6% | 58.4% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 45.9% | 54.1% | +0.9 | ✗ (8.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 47.1% | 52.9% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 48.4% | 51.6% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 47.9% | 52.1% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 47.9% | 52.1% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 43.4% | 56.6% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Atlanta Hawks -8 (98-106). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Martin * | 40 | 8-12 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 24 | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 39 | 3-13 | 0-8 | 5-5 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 20 | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 33 | 13-20 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 32 | 22 | - | |
| Max Strus * | 32 | 6-15 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 5 | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 32 | 2-9 | 1-7 | 4-4 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 15 | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 23 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | - | |
| Dru Smith | 20 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon | 14 | 6-7 | 1-2 | 0-2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 13 | - | |
| Jamal Cain | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Atlanta Hawks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dejounte Murray * | 38 | 5-16 | 2-8 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 5 | - | |
| Trae Young * | 38 | 4-16 | 1-8 | 13-13 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 26 | - | |
| John Collins * | 36 | 11-17 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 23 | - | |
| De'Andre Hunter * | 35 | 6-14 | 2-4 | 4-4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 11 | - | |
| Onyeka Okongwu * | 33 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | - | |
| AJ Griffin | 21 | 3-13 | 2-9 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -2 | - | |
| Trent Forrest | 12 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - | |
| Frank Kaminsky | 11 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7 | - | |
| Jalen Johnson | 11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - |
* = starter