Model Predictions
| Model | Washington Wizards | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 20.7% | 79.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 24.9% | 75.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 11.8% | 88.2% | +11.0 | ✓ (8.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 45.2% | 54.8% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 40.9% | 59.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 39.5% | 60.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 39.5% | 60.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 38.8% | 61.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +3 (110-107). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Washington Wizards
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Kuzma * | 38 | 11-22 | 3-10 | 3-3 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 28 | 19 | - | |
| Bradley Beal * | 37 | 11-20 | 4-7 | 2-3 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 28 | 22 | - | |
| Kristaps Porzingis * | 35 | 7-18 | 1-4 | 3-3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 10 | - | |
| Corey Kispert * | 34 | 2-9 | 1-7 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | - | |
| Deni Avdija * | 30 | 2-8 | 0-4 | 4-6 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 17 | - | |
| Jordan Goodwin | 25 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 13 | - | |
| Will Barton | 16 | 1-8 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | - | |
| Anthony Gill | 12 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | - | |
| Daniel Gafford | 8 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry * | 39 | 4-12 | 2-6 | 3-3 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 17 | - | |
| Caleb Martin * | 38 | 7-11 | 2-4 | 4-5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 15 | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 38 | 4-18 | 2-10 | 1-1 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 9 | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 35 | 15-22 | 0-1 | 8-8 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 38 | 31 | - | |
| Nikola Jovic * | 14 | 3-6 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 33 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 1-4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 9 | - | |
| Dru Smith | 15 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon | 12 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 7 | - | |
| Jamal Cain | 11 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - |
* = starter