Model Predictions
| Model | Washington Wizards | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 20.7% | 79.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 24.9% | 75.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 11.8% | 88.2% | +11.0 | ✓ (3.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 45.2% | 54.8% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 40.9% | 59.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 39.5% | 60.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 39.5% | 60.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 38.8% | 61.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +8 (113-105). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Washington Wizards
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deni Avdija * | 40 | 5-10 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 12 | - | - | |
| Kyle Kuzma * | 39 | 13-27 | 2-13 | 5-7 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 33 | - | - | |
| Corey Kispert * | 39 | 3-8 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Kristaps Porzingis * | 33 | 8-19 | 2-9 | 3-6 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 21 | - | - | |
| Jordan Goodwin * | 24 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 1-3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Will Barton | 29 | 5-10 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Anthony Gill | 12 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - | - | |
| Daniel Gafford | 9 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Johnny Davis | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | - | - | |
| Taj Gibson | 4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Martin * | 40 | 10-17 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 24 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 35 | 5-15 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 15 | - | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 35 | 7-12 | 5-6 | 9-9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 28 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 29 | 6-15 | 5-10 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17 | - | - | |
| Nikola Jovic * | 12 | 3-7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 37 | 2-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 18 | 1-9 | 0-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Jamal Cain | 17 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon | 12 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 3-3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | - | - |
* = starter