Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Minnesota Timberwolves | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 24.5% | 75.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 30.3% | 69.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 24.4% | 75.6% | +6.2 | ✓ (2.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 47.4% | 52.6% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 49.3% | 50.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 51.2% | 48.8% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 51.2% | 48.8% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 45.5% | 54.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Minnesota Timberwolves +4 (105-101). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry * | 44 | 5-16 | 4-11 | 7-11 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 21 | - | - | |
| Caleb Martin * | 40 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 2-4 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | - | - | |
| Max Strus * | 40 | 7-23 | 4-15 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 19 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 34 | 7-18 | 0-2 | 3-6 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 17 | - | - | |
| Nikola Jovic * | 22 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Jamal Cain | 24 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 19 | 4-7 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon | 12 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 3-4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | - | - |
Minnesota Timberwolves
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Edwards * | 38 | 9-21 | 4-12 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 22 | - | - | |
| Karl-Anthony Towns * | 34 | 8-15 | 2-8 | 7-8 | 8 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 25 | - | - | |
| Jaden McDaniels * | 32 | 7-14 | 3-6 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Rudy Gobert * | 31 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | - | - | |
| D'Angelo Russell * | 27 | 1-5 | 0-4 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | - | - | |
| Taurean Prince | 30 | 3-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Naz Reid | 16 | 3-9 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | - | - | |
| Jordan McLaughlin | 15 | 4-5 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Jaylen Nowell | 9 | 2-7 | 0-4 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Bryn Forbes | 4 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter