Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Washington Wizards | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 65.7% | 34.3% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 62.9% | 37.1% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 77.9% | 22.1% | -6.9 | ✗ (7.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 48.8% | 51.2% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 53.1% | 46.9% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 54.5% | 45.5% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 54.5% | 45.5% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 47.8% | 52.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Washington Wizards +1 (107-106). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry * | 50 | 8-23 | 4-11 | 4-6 | 10 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 29 | - | |
| Caleb Martin * | 47 | 3-12 | 2-5 | 4-4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 11 | - | |
| Max Strus * | 45 | 8-24 | 3-14 | 3-3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 5 | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith * | 41 | 5-17 | 1-7 | 1-2 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 12 | - | |
| Nikola Jovic * | 30 | 4-10 | 1-3 | 9-10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 14 | - | |
| Orlando Robinson | 32 | 6-10 | 0-2 | 2-3 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 13 | - | |
| Jamal Cain | 17 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 2-4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | - |
Washington Wizards
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradley Beal * | 48 | 9-18 | 5-9 | 4-4 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 20 | - | |
| Kyle Kuzma * | 40 | 9-24 | 2-12 | 1-3 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 11 | - | |
| Kristaps Porzingis * | 39 | 7-20 | 1-6 | 5-7 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 25 | - | |
| Monte Morris * | 26 | 3-8 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 8 | - | |
| Deni Avdija * | 14 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | - | |
| Corey Kispert | 38 | 6-9 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 17 | - | |
| Rui Hachimura | 28 | 6-11 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 14 | - | |
| Taj Gibson | 16 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 | - | |
| Will Barton | 8 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - | |
| Daniel Gafford | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter