Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Toronto Raptors | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 37.0% | 63.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 43.3% | 56.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 47.2% | 52.8% | +0.6 | ✓ (7.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 45.6% | 54.4% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 42.6% | 57.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 45.8% | 54.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 45.8% | 54.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 42.3% | 57.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Toronto Raptors +8 (112-104). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Martin * | 38 | 6-10 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 38 | 4-8 | 0-2 | 5-5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 35 | 6-9 | 4-7 | 3-4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 19 | - | - | |
| Max Strus * | 35 | 6-11 | 3-8 | 5-5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 20 | - | - | |
| Nikola Jovic * | 23 | 4-8 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 32 | 6-11 | 3-8 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon | 15 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 14 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Jamal Cain | 6 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Toronto Raptors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O.G. Anunoby * | 43 | 13-18 | 1-3 | 5-6 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 32 | - | - | |
| Scottie Barnes * | 41 | 9-14 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 | - | - | |
| Fred VanVleet * | 39 | 7-21 | 3-10 | 6-7 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 23 | - | - | |
| Thaddeus Young * | 27 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Dalano Banton * | 20 | 2-10 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Chris Boucher | 25 | 4-7 | 1-3 | 6-9 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Juancho Hernangomez | 22 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Christian Koloko | 13 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | - | - | |
| Khem Birch | 7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - | - |
* = starter