Model Predictions
| Model | Phoenix Suns | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 64.7% | 35.3% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 50.1% | 49.9% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 43.4% | 56.6% | +1.5 | ✓ (0.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 49.6% | 50.4% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 51.8% | 48.2% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 51.1% | 48.9% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 51.1% | 48.9% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 46.3% | 53.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +1 (113-112). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Phoenix Suns
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Booker * | 41 | 11-22 | 2-7 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 25 | 20 | - | |
| Mikal Bridges * | 39 | 7-14 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 10 | - | |
| Deandre Ayton * | 34 | 8-10 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 21 | - | |
| Torrey Craig * | 32 | 4-10 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 13 | - | |
| Cameron Payne * | 30 | 4-17 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 1 | - | |
| Damion Lee | 22 | 5-9 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 10 | - | |
| Duane Washington Jr. | 19 | 8-14 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 11 | - | |
| Jock Landale | 8 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - | |
| Josh Okogie | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | |
| Bismack Biyombo | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry * | 38 | 5-14 | 2-5 | 3-4 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 11 | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 36 | 9-18 | 0-1 | 12-14 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 30 | 24 | - | |
| Max Strus * | 36 | 2-8 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | - | |
| Caleb Martin * | 36 | 5-8 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 19 | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 34 | 5-12 | 1-2 | 5-5 | 13 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 26 | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 24 | 4-9 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 9 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 20 | 3-7 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 3 | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon | 11 | 5-7 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 10 | - |
* = starter