Model Predictions
| Model | Charlotte Hornets | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 29.3% | 70.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 23.4% | 76.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 19.2% | 80.8% | +7.9 | ✓ (9.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 35.9% | 64.1% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 25.0% | 75.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 22.7% | 77.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 22.7% | 77.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 27.3% | 72.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +17 (132-115). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Charlotte Hornets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Rozier * | 34 | 8-17 | 4-9 | 2-3 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 22 | - | - | |
| Kelly Oubre Jr. * | 33 | 8-16 | 2-5 | 2-3 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 20 | - | - | |
| LaMelo Ball * | 28 | 6-17 | 1-9 | 2-2 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| P.J. Washington * | 27 | 2-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | - | - | |
| Mason Plumlee * | 26 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Jalen McDaniels | 27 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Nick Richards | 21 | 6-7 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Theo Maledon | 19 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| James Bouknight | 14 | 4-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | - | - | |
| JT Thor | 5 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Kai Jones | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Strus * | 38 | 10-16 | 8-14 | 3-3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 31 | - | - | |
| Caleb Martin * | 33 | 3-8 | 0-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 33 | 11-18 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 24 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 31 | 6-8 | 1-2 | 7-7 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 20 | - | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 31 | 5-12 | 1-6 | 1-1 | 11 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 12 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 30 | 7-13 | 3-8 | 3-3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 20 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 23 | 2-9 | 0-6 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon | 13 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | - | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Nikola Jovic | 1 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Jamal Cain | 1 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | - | - |
* = starter