Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Indiana Pacers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 60.0% | 40.0% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 38.6% | 61.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 44.0% | 56.0% | +1.3 | ✓ (0.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 50.6% | 49.4% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 58.9% | 41.1% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 58.7% | 41.3% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 58.7% | 41.3% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 51.6% | 48.4% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Indiana Pacers +2 (101-99). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Strus * | 39 | 6-13 | 3-7 | 2-2 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 16 | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 38 | 8-20 | 4-10 | 9-9 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 29 | 21 | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 37 | 1-9 | 1-6 | 7-7 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 13 | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 33 | 7-14 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 19 | - | |
| Caleb Martin * | 27 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 8 | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 25 | 6-10 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 11 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 16 | 0-7 | 0-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon | 14 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 6 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
Indiana Pacers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buddy Hield * | 40 | 10-18 | 5-12 | 0-0 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 18 | - | |
| Tyrese Haliburton * | 36 | 9-16 | 3-8 | 1-4 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 22 | 26 | - | |
| Myles Turner * | 31 | 7-9 | 1-2 | 1-3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 18 | - | |
| Jalen Smith * | 11 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | |
| Chris Duarte * | 4 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | |
| Bennedict Mathurin | 36 | 5-11 | 3-7 | 10-12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 16 | - | |
| Andrew Nembhard | 27 | 2-8 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | - | |
| T.J. McConnell | 22 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 10 | - | |
| Isaiah Jackson | 16 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | - | |
| Oshae Brissett | 11 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | - |
* = starter