Model Predictions
| Model | Sacramento Kings | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 27.7% | 72.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 42.1% | 57.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 34.6% | 65.4% | +3.5 | ✓ (0.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 50.7% | 49.3% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 56.0% | 44.0% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 53.6% | 46.4% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 53.6% | 46.4% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 48.3% | 51.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +3 (110-107). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Sacramento Kings
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Huerter * | 38 | 9-17 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 22 | - | - | |
| Domantas Sabonis * | 37 | 8-15 | 1-1 | 5-7 | 12 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 22 | - | - | |
| Harrison Barnes * | 34 | 4-12 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Davion Mitchell * | 29 | 4-9 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Keegan Murray * | 27 | 3-7 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | - | - | |
| Malik Monk | 21 | 8-13 | 2-5 | 1-1 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 19 | - | - | |
| Matthew Dellavedova | 19 | 2-5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Trey Lyles | 12 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Richaun Holmes | 10 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Terence Davis | 8 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 4-4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry * | 37 | 8-14 | 2-7 | 4-5 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 22 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 37 | 12-21 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 26 | - | - | |
| Max Strus * | 32 | 4-7 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 32 | 9-16 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 20 | - | - | |
| Caleb Martin * | 29 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 28 | 3-12 | 2-7 | 2-3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 24 | 1-6 | 1-5 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon | 15 | 4-6 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | - | - |
* = starter