Model Predictions
| Model | Golden State Warriors | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 56.0% | 44.0% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 52.3% | 47.7% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 54.3% | 45.7% | -0.9 | ✗ (7.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 48.8% | 51.2% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 51.3% | 48.7% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 48.8% | 51.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 48.8% | 51.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 44.7% | 55.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +7 (116-109). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Golden State Warriors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Wiggins * | 34 | 8-12 | 4-7 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 20 | - | |
| Stephen Curry * | 34 | 7-14 | 4-10 | 5-5 | 13 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 36 | - | |
| Draymond Green * | 32 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 14 | - | |
| Klay Thompson * | 30 | 7-19 | 4-12 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 7 | - | |
| Kevon Looney * | 22 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | - | |
| Jordan Poole | 29 | 3-10 | 1-7 | 2-4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 3 | - | |
| JaMychal Green | 17 | 4-11 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 10 | - | |
| Moses Moody | 14 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 4 | - | |
| Ty Jerome | 13 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6 | - | |
| James Wiseman | 9 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 37 | 8-15 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 19 | 21 | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 36 | 5-10 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 17 | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 36 | 6-17 | 2-7 | 9-9 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 21 | - | |
| Caleb Martin * | 19 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 9 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - | |
| Max Strus | 32 | 8-17 | 4-10 | 4-4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 11 | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 30 | 2-7 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 10 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 25 | 6-10 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 12 | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon | 10 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 10 | - |
* = starter