Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Sacramento Kings | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 55.7% | 44.3% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 41.6% | 58.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 30.8% | 69.2% | +4.5 | ✓ (1.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 44.0% | 56.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 41.2% | 58.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 41.1% | 58.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 39.0% | 61.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Sacramento Kings +6 (119-113). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Butler * | 37 | 4-11 | 0-1 | 5-7 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 37 | 9-16 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 23 | - | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 36 | 3-8 | 1-4 | 8-8 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 15 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 34 | 13-22 | 5-8 | 3-4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 34 | - | - | |
| Caleb Martin * | 25 | 3-9 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Max Strus | 34 | 4-15 | 3-11 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 19 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Udonis Haslem | 7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Nikola Jovic | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Sacramento Kings
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Huerter * | 38 | 8-11 | 7-8 | 4-6 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 27 | - | - | |
| De'Aaron Fox * | 36 | 6-17 | 0-2 | 5-5 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 17 | - | - | |
| Keegan Murray * | 35 | 8-13 | 3-7 | 3-4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 22 | - | - | |
| Harrison Barnes * | 33 | 3-7 | 1-4 | 4-4 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Domantas Sabonis * | 22 | 8-9 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 18 | - | - | |
| Richaun Holmes | 21 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Trey Lyles | 18 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | - | - | |
| Malik Monk | 13 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Davion Mitchell | 11 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Terence Davis | 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Alex Len | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - | - | |
| KZ Okpala | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter