Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Golden State Warriors | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 28.3% | 71.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 33.9% | 66.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 28.6% | 71.4% | +5.0 | ✓ (8.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 45.2% | 54.8% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 42.7% | 57.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 45.2% | 54.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 45.2% | 54.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 41.8% | 58.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Golden State Warriors +13 (123-110). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Butler * | 37 | 8-13 | 4-7 | 7-7 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 27 | 34 | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 37 | 10-13 | 0-0 | 6-8 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 26 | 29 | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 33 | 4-10 | 2-8 | 2-2 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 18 | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 31 | 3-12 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | - | |
| Caleb Martin * | 29 | 3-10 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 1 | - | |
| Max Strus | 32 | 5-11 | 3-8 | 1-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 10 | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 17 | 3-8 | 1-4 | 2-3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 6 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 13 | 1-7 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -2 | - | |
| Nikola Jovic | 7 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | - |
Golden State Warriors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry * | 36 | 13-22 | 7-14 | 0-0 | 7 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 33 | 28 | - | |
| Andrew Wiggins * | 36 | 5-10 | 2-5 | 6-6 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 22 | - | |
| Draymond Green * | 30 | 5-10 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 11 | - | |
| Kevon Looney * | 29 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 14 | - | |
| Klay Thompson * | 29 | 6-19 | 5-14 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 3 | - | |
| Jordan Poole | 21 | 4-7 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 13 | - | |
| Moses Moody | 17 | 2-6 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | - | |
| JaMychal Green | 17 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 12 | - | |
| James Wiseman | 13 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 8 | - | |
| Ty Jerome | 7 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | - |
* = starter