Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Portland Trail Blazers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 27.0% | 73.0% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 43.1% | 56.9% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 51.8% | 48.2% | -0.4 | ✓ (20.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 52.6% | 47.4% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 62.5% | 37.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 65.2% | 34.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 65.2% | 34.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 55.3% | 44.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Portland Trail Blazers -21 (98-119). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Martin * | 29 | 7-8 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 28 | 6-11 | 0-1 | 6-7 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 28 | 5-13 | 3-8 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 27 | 7-15 | 0-3 | 3-4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 17 | - | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 26 | 5-8 | 5-7 | 2-3 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | - | - | |
| Max Strus | 27 | 6-11 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 20 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 19 | 2-7 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Nikola Jovic | 13 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon | 5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Dru Smith | 5 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Udonis Haslem | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | - | - |
Portland Trail Blazers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hart * | 31 | 3-4 | 1-1 | 3-3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 10 | - | - | |
| Anfernee Simons * | 29 | 5-12 | 3-8 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Jerami Grant * | 28 | 4-10 | 1-5 | 2-5 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Damian Lillard * | 26 | 6-13 | 4-11 | 6-6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 22 | - | - | |
| Jusuf Nurkic * | 25 | 2-7 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | - | - | |
| Justise Winslow | 24 | 4-9 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | - | - | |
| Shaedon Sharpe | 21 | 5-12 | 2-5 | 3-5 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Nassir Little | 17 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Drew Eubanks | 10 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Keon Johnson | 8 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Greg Brown III | 7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | - | - | |
| Jabari Walker | 7 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - |
* = starter