Model Predictions
| Model | Toronto Raptors | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 46.0% | 54.0% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 42.4% | 57.6% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 34.6% | 65.4% | +3.5 | ✗ (11.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 48.4% | 51.6% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 51.4% | 48.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 48.2% | 51.8% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 48.2% | 51.8% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 44.1% | 55.9% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Miami Heat -8 (90-98). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Toronto Raptors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gary Trent Jr. * | 42 | 7-19 | 4-12 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 4 | - | |
| Pascal Siakam * | 41 | 7-22 | 2-6 | 7-8 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 20 | - | |
| Fred VanVleet * | 39 | 6-16 | 4-6 | 8-9 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 22 | - | |
| O.G. Anunoby * | 33 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 12 | - | |
| Christian Koloko * | 17 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | - | |
| Precious Achiuwa | 33 | 5-12 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 23 | - | |
| Chris Boucher | 11 | 4-5 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 7 | - | |
| Dalano Banton | 7 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | |
| Khem Birch | 6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - | |
| Malachi Flynn | 5 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro * | 39 | 8-18 | 2-9 | 4-5 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 24 | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 37 | 4-14 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 16 | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 36 | 1-8 | 1-6 | 4-4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 33 | 8-15 | 2-3 | 8-9 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 23 | - | |
| Max Strus * | 30 | 3-14 | 0-8 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 25 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 15 | 4-8 | 3-6 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 5 | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon | 10 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 10 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter