Model Predictions
| Model | Oklahoma City Thunder | Denver Nuggets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 44.8% | 55.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 53.2% | 46.8% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 67.7% | 32.3% | -4.1 | ✗ (9.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 45.5% | 54.5% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 33.8% | 66.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 38.6% | 61.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 38.7% | 61.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 38.0% | 62.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Denver Nuggets +5 (122-117). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Oklahoma City Thunder
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander * | 33 | 11-24 | 1-5 | 5-5 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 28 | - | - | |
| Josh Giddey * | 32 | 8-17 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 | - | - | |
| Luguentz Dort * | 30 | 3-13 | 1-7 | 6-8 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Jeremiah Robinson-Earl * | 18 | 4-6 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Aleksej Pokusevski * | 12 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | - | - | |
| Tre Mann | 28 | 5-11 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Darius Bazley | 21 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6 | - | - | |
| Mike Muscala | 18 | 6-10 | 4-7 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Kenrich Williams | 16 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Aaron Wiggins | 15 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Ousmane Dieng | 7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Eugene Omoruyi | 3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Lindy Waters III | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic * | 38 | 6-10 | 1-1 | 6-9 | 16 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 19 | - | - | |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope * | 31 | 7-13 | 6-10 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21 | - | - | |
| Aaron Gordon * | 28 | 3-9 | 1-3 | 4-8 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11 | - | - | |
| Jamal Murray * | 27 | 6-12 | 1-4 | 3-4 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Michael Porter Jr. * | 27 | 8-15 | 5-10 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 22 | - | - | |
| Bruce Brown | 26 | 2-8 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | - | - | |
| Jeff Green | 19 | 5-5 | 2-2 | 2-4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Christian Braun | 16 | 3-5 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | - | - | |
| Bones Hyland | 14 | 0-5 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - | - | |
| Zeke Nnaji | 9 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - |
* = starter