Model Predictions
| Model | Toronto Raptors | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 46.0% | 54.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 42.4% | 57.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 34.6% | 65.4% | +3.5 | ✓ (0.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 48.4% | 51.6% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 51.4% | 48.6% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 48.2% | 51.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 48.2% | 51.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 44.1% | 55.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +3 (112-109). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Toronto Raptors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pascal Siakam * | 40 | 8-19 | 0-2 | 7-8 | 8 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 23 | - | |
| O.G. Anunoby * | 38 | 5-14 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 10 | - | |
| Gary Trent Jr. * | 38 | 7-18 | 5-12 | 4-6 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 11 | - | |
| Fred VanVleet * | 38 | 2-9 | 1-6 | 2-2 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 13 | - | |
| Scottie Barnes * | 13 | 5-9 | 0-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 7 | - | |
| Precious Achiuwa | 33 | 5-9 | 2-5 | 6-7 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 21 | - | |
| Christian Koloko | 12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | - | |
| Thaddeus Young | 10 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5 | - | |
| Malachi Flynn | 8 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | - | |
| Dalano Banton | 5 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry * | 37 | 5-11 | 3-7 | 4-4 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 15 | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 35 | 4-6 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 12 | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 34 | 7-16 | 1-1 | 9-11 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 17 | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 22 | 4-8 | 1-4 | 5-5 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 20 | - | |
| Caleb Martin * | 22 | 3-8 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 8 | - | |
| Max Strus | 37 | 8-14 | 3-7 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 16 | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 23 | 3-7 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 13 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 14 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6 | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon | 12 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | - |
* = starter