Model Predictions
| Model | Boston Celtics | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 65.2% | 34.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 67.5% | 32.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 74.8% | 25.2% | -6.0 | ✓ (1.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 53.7% | 46.3% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 66.9% | 33.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 65.3% | 34.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 65.3% | 34.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 56.3% | 43.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat -7 (104-111). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Boston Celtics
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayson Tatum * | 36 | 10-22 | 2-7 | 7-7 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 29 | 19 | - | |
| Jaylen Brown * | 34 | 12-18 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 21 | - | |
| Marcus Smart * | 33 | 4-9 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 7 | - | |
| Al Horford * | 33 | 3-5 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 10 | - | |
| Derrick White * | 24 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 4-4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 16 | - | |
| Grant Williams | 25 | 4-6 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 15 | - | |
| Malcolm Brogdon | 24 | 2-9 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 | - | |
| Noah Vonleh | 14 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 | - | |
| Sam Hauser | 12 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 4 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Butler * | 40 | 9-17 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 14 | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 36 | 10-21 | 2-6 | 3-3 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 15 | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 34 | 8-11 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 23 | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 33 | 4-13 | 3-7 | 6-8 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 18 | - | |
| Caleb Martin * | 28 | 2-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 24 | 7-13 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 7 | - | |
| Max Strus | 23 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon | 8 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 4 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter