Model Predictions
| Model | Atlanta Hawks | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 43.3% | 56.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 38.3% | 61.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 32.8% | 67.2% | +3.9 | ✓ (0.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 43.2% | 56.8% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 37.1% | 62.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 35.4% | 64.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 35.4% | 64.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 36.1% | 63.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +4 (113-109). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Atlanta Hawks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trae Young * | 36 | 12-23 | 3-11 | 8-8 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 35 | - | - | |
| Kevin Huerter * | 29 | 6-11 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Danilo Gallinari * | 28 | 3-9 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Clint Capela * | 26 | 8-11 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | - | - | |
| De'Andre Hunter * | 25 | 1-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | 36 | 8-18 | 3-8 | 6-6 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 25 | - | - | |
| Delon Wright | 21 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Onyeka Okongwu | 20 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot | 14 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Butler * | 37 | 5-10 | 0-2 | 10-12 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 20 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 32 | 8-14 | 0-0 | 8-10 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 24 | - | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 31 | 7-10 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Max Strus * | 27 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Caleb Martin * | 26 | 3-7 | 1-4 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 32 | 6-12 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 20 | 3-6 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 16 | 4-7 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon | 15 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | - | - |
* = starter