Model Predictions
| Model | Charlotte Hornets | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 30.3% | 69.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 26.1% | 73.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 19.7% | 80.3% | +7.7 | ✓ (21.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 40.7% | 59.3% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 31.9% | 68.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 28.8% | 71.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 28.6% | 71.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 31.7% | 68.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +29 (144-115). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Charlotte Hornets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Bridges * | 35 | 11-16 | 3-5 | 4-5 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 29 | - | - | |
| LaMelo Ball * | 34 | 7-13 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Terry Rozier * | 33 | 7-15 | 1-6 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| P.J. Washington * | 32 | 5-10 | 0-3 | 3-4 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | - | - | |
| Mason Plumlee * | 20 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Cody Martin | 27 | 3-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7 | - | - | |
| Jalen McDaniels | 17 | 5-7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Kelly Oubre Jr. | 16 | 2-7 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Isaiah Thomas | 15 | 2-7 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | - | - | |
| Nick Richards | 3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| James Bouknight | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| JT Thor | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Butler * | 35 | 9-15 | 2-4 | 7-8 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 27 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 30 | 7-10 | 0-0 | 8-9 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 22 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent * | 22 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| P.J. Tucker * | 21 | 3-7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Max Strus * | 18 | 4-6 | 3-5 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 33 | 11-18 | 6-10 | 7-7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 35 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 27 | 7-11 | 7-11 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 21 | - | - | |
| Caleb Martin | 26 | 4-8 | 3-3 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Omer Yurtseven | 15 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 3 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Mychal Mulder | 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Javonte Smart | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter