Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Toronto Raptors | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 36.2% | 63.8% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 46.1% | 53.9% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 49.1% | 50.9% | +0.2 | ✗ (5.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 49.9% | 50.1% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 56.9% | 43.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 56.3% | 43.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 56.3% | 43.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 49.4% | 50.6% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Toronto Raptors -5 (109-114). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 36 | 6-12 | 0-0 | 4-9 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 14 | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 34 | 4-8 | 2-4 | 6-7 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 25 | - | |
| Max Strus * | 29 | 7-10 | 7-9 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 18 | - | |
| Caleb Martin * | 26 | 2-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 | - | |
| Markieff Morris * | 25 | 4-10 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 10 | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 36 | 8-16 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 19 | - | |
| Victor Oladipo | 27 | 7-11 | 6-9 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 19 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 12 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | |
| Omer Yurtseven | 11 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | - |
Toronto Raptors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gary Trent Jr. * | 43 | 6-13 | 3-8 | 4-4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 19 | 12 | - | |
| Pascal Siakam * | 43 | 11-18 | 1-3 | 6-7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 29 | 26 | - | |
| Fred VanVleet * | 40 | 7-17 | 4-11 | 11-11 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 29 | 24 | - | |
| Scottie Barnes * | 34 | 7-16 | 3-9 | 2-2 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 14 | - | |
| Khem Birch * | 13 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | |
| Chris Boucher | 21 | 3-10 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 8 | - | |
| Precious Achiuwa | 20 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 1-4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - | |
| Thaddeus Young | 17 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 2-4 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | - | |
| Armoni Brooks | 4 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter