Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Boston Celtics | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 20.9% | 79.1% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 30.3% | 69.7% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 20.0% | 80.0% | +7.6 | ✗ (15.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 45.4% | 54.6% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 39.3% | 60.7% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 40.3% | 59.7% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 40.2% | 59.8% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 39.2% | 60.8% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Boston Celtics -8 (98-106). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Butler * | 36 | 9-17 | 0-3 | 6-8 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 24 | - | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 35 | 8-16 | 6-12 | 1-2 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 23 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 33 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 7-9 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 17 | - | - | |
| Max Strus * | 31 | 5-10 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 14 | - | - | |
| P.J. Tucker * | 27 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 32 | 5-14 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 15 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | - | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon | 14 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 13 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Boston Celtics
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayson Tatum * | 39 | 9-17 | 0-5 | 5-6 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 23 | - | - | |
| Jaylen Brown * | 37 | 9-22 | 5-9 | 5-6 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 28 | - | - | |
| Marcus Smart * | 35 | 3-15 | 3-10 | 1-2 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Al Horford * | 33 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | - | - | |
| Grant Williams * | 25 | 2-7 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Derrick White | 31 | 3-9 | 1-4 | 2-3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Payton Pritchard | 19 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Daniel Theis | 17 | 6-6 | 1-1 | 2-3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | - | - |
* = starter