Model Predictions
| Model | Sacramento Kings | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 30.2% | 69.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 32.8% | 67.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 24.5% | 75.5% | +6.2 | ✓ (16.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 35.3% | 64.7% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 16.3% | 83.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 18.3% | 81.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 18.3% | 81.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 24.4% | 75.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +23 (123-100). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Sacramento Kings
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davion Mitchell * | 40 | 9-19 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 21 | - | - | |
| Harrison Barnes * | 37 | 5-10 | 3-8 | 4-4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17 | - | - | |
| Trey Lyles * | 30 | 4-10 | 0-3 | 3-3 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Damian Jones * | 25 | 6-8 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Justin Holiday * | 22 | 2-8 | 1-6 | 1-3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Donte DiVincenzo | 32 | 4-12 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Chimezie Metu | 26 | 4-9 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Neemias Queta | 15 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Jeremy Lamb | 8 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Butler * | 33 | 10-14 | 3-5 | 4-4 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 27 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 31 | 10-16 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 22 | - | - | |
| Max Strus * | 30 | 3-12 | 2-9 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 25 | 3-4 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| P.J. Tucker * | 24 | 3-6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 28 | 8-15 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 20 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 24 | 5-8 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 19 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon | 13 | 3-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Udonis Haslem | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Omer Yurtseven | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - |
* = starter