Model Predictions
| Model | Golden State Warriors | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 56.2% | 43.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 49.6% | 50.4% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 51.7% | 48.3% | -0.4 | ✓ (13.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 48.0% | 52.0% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 52.3% | 47.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 52.3% | 47.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 52.4% | 47.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 46.4% | 53.6% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Miami Heat -14 (104-118). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Golden State Warriors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Poole * | 39 | 10-18 | 7-13 | 3-3 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 30 | - | - | |
| Andrew Wiggins * | 37 | 8-16 | 3-7 | 3-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 22 | - | - | |
| Jonathan Kuminga * | 29 | 9-17 | 0-3 | 4-8 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22 | - | - | |
| Kevon Looney * | 28 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Moses Moody * | 17 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | - | - | |
| Damion Lee | 30 | 5-10 | 3-6 | 9-9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 22 | - | - | |
| Gary Payton II | 26 | 5-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Nemanja Bjelica | 19 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 4-4 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Chris Chiozza | 8 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Juan Toscano-Anderson | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Butler * | 40 | 7-15 | 2-2 | 4-5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 20 | - | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 38 | 9-14 | 6-9 | 2-2 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 26 | - | - | |
| P.J. Tucker * | 35 | 3-6 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 33 | 9-16 | 0-0 | 7-10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 25 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 32 | 4-12 | 4-11 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 13 | - | - | |
| Victor Oladipo | 19 | 3-11 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Max Strus | 14 | 0-5 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Caleb Martin | 10 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon | 9 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Markieff Morris | 4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter