Model Predictions
| Model | Oklahoma City Thunder | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 68.2% | 31.8% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 49.7% | 50.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 53.6% | 46.4% | -0.8 | ✗ (12.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 29.4% | 70.6% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 10.9% | 89.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 12.1% | 87.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 12.1% | 87.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 19.2% | 80.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +12 (120-108). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Oklahoma City Thunder
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aleksej Pokusevski * | 33 | 5-12 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander * | 32 | 9-17 | 1-4 | 7-9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 26 | - | - | |
| Darius Bazley * | 29 | 5-13 | 1-5 | 4-5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Aaron Wiggins * | 29 | 5-7 | 0-1 | 7-8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 | - | - | |
| Olivier Sarr * | 14 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | - | - | |
| Vit Krejci | 29 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Tre Mann | 27 | 10-19 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25 | - | - | |
| Isaiah Roby | 18 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | - | - | |
| Theo Maledon | 14 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | - | - | |
| Lindy Waters III | 10 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabe Vincent * | 30 | 1-9 | 0-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 27 | 6-9 | 4-7 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 24 | 8-10 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 19 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 19 | 7-10 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | - | - | |
| P.J. Tucker * | 17 | 0-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Max Strus | 30 | 4-12 | 4-11 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 27 | 9-13 | 2-4 | 6-6 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 26 | - | - | |
| Caleb Martin | 26 | 4-9 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Markieff Morris | 19 | 6-10 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Omer Yurtseven | 3 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Kyle Guy | 3 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Javonte Smart | 3 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Udonis Haslem | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - |
* = starter