Model Predictions
| Model | Detroit Pistons | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 70.2% | 29.8% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 34.9% | 65.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 28.0% | 72.0% | +5.2 | ✓ (1.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 30.3% | 69.7% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 11.5% | 88.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 13.1% | 86.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 13.0% | 87.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 20.3% | 79.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +7 (105-98). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Detroit Pistons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerami Grant * | 38 | 8-20 | 1-5 | 5-8 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 22 | - | - | |
| Saddiq Bey * | 36 | 4-12 | 1-9 | 4-6 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Isaiah Stewart * | 21 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - | - | |
| Rodney McGruder * | 20 | 2-6 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Cory Joseph * | 17 | 4-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Isaiah Livers | 31 | 6-7 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Killian Hayes | 30 | 4-10 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Marvin Bagley III | 29 | 6-9 | 0-2 | 1-4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13 | - | - | |
| Kelly Olynyk | 13 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry * | 34 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 6-6 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| P.J. Tucker * | 31 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 24 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 8-10 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 20 | 2-10 | 2-9 | 6-6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 18 | 2-9 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 34 | 8-15 | 4-8 | 9-11 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 29 | - | - | |
| Victor Oladipo | 16 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Markieff Morris | 16 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Max Strus | 15 | 6-9 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon | 14 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 13 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter