Model Predictions
| Model | Phoenix Suns | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 65.5% | 34.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 49.9% | 50.1% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 45.6% | 54.4% | +1.0 | ✗ (22.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 49.0% | 51.0% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 54.9% | 45.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 52.5% | 47.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 52.5% | 47.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 46.5% | 53.5% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Miami Heat -21 (90-111). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Phoenix Suns
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikal Bridges * | 34 | 9-13 | 0-3 | 3-3 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 21 | - | |
| Devin Booker * | 33 | 7-12 | 4-7 | 5-5 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 32 | - | |
| Cameron Payne * | 31 | 4-13 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 14 | - | |
| Jae Crowder * | 30 | 5-16 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 2 | - | |
| Deandre Ayton * | 29 | 9-10 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 20 | - | |
| Landry Shamet | 25 | 3-9 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | - | |
| Aaron Holiday | 15 | 2-7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | - | |
| JaVale McGee | 15 | 5-13 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 14 | - | |
| Torrey Craig | 15 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | |
| Elfrid Payton | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | |
| Ish Wainright | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | |
| Bismack Biyombo | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duncan Robinson * | 31 | 7-15 | 6-11 | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 12 | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 31 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 17 | - | |
| Gabe Vincent * | 29 | 2-10 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 29 | 7-11 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 19 | - | |
| P.J. Tucker * | 25 | 4-10 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 9 | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 30 | 7-20 | 2-9 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 1 | - | |
| Victor Oladipo | 16 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon | 14 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | - | |
| Max Strus | 12 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - | |
| Caleb Martin | 9 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | |
| Omer Yurtseven | 4 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 8 | - |
* = starter