Model Predictions
| Model | Houston Rockets | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 46.0% | 54.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 34.6% | 65.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 31.3% | 68.7% | +4.3 | ✓ (12.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 29.4% | 70.6% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 9.9% | 90.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 11.7% | 88.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 11.6% | 88.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 18.7% | 81.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +17 (123-106). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Houston Rockets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alperen Sengun * | 30 | 5-11 | 0-1 | 3-6 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 13 | - | - | |
| Jalen Green * | 30 | 8-16 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20 | - | - | |
| Kevin Porter Jr. * | 29 | 7-15 | 5-11 | 3-4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22 | - | - | |
| Jae'Sean Tate * | 25 | 3-8 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | - | - | |
| Garrison Mathews * | 20 | 0-5 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Kenyon Martin Jr. | 33 | 5-6 | 0-1 | 4-6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 | - | - | |
| Josh Christopher | 28 | 6-11 | 3-6 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 16 | - | - | |
| Daishen Nix | 22 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| David Nwaba | 13 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Bruno Fernando | 3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | - | - | |
| Trevelin Queen | 3 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry * | 32 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 29 | 8-15 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 18 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 29 | 7-11 | 0-0 | 7-9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 21 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 27 | 5-9 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| P.J. Tucker * | 24 | 5-12 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 30 | 12-18 | 6-9 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 31 | - | - | |
| Caleb Martin | 21 | 2-5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Victor Oladipo | 14 | 4-7 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon | 13 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 3 | 3-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Max Strus | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Kyle Guy | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Omer Yurtseven | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter