Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Milwaukee Bucks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 43.7% | 56.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 39.4% | 60.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 40.7% | 59.3% | +2.1 | ✓ (1.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 48.9% | 51.1% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 52.1% | 47.9% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 52.7% | 47.3% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 52.8% | 47.2% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 46.7% | 53.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Milwaukee Bucks +1 (120-119). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 37 | 8-17 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 19 | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 35 | 2-14 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -1 | - | |
| Gabe Vincent * | 31 | 8-15 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 17 | - | |
| P.J. Tucker * | 26 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 15 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 21 | 5-7 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 11 | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 35 | 11-21 | 6-10 | 2-2 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 30 | 22 | - | |
| Max Strus | 21 | 3-9 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 5 | - | |
| Caleb Martin | 19 | 4-7 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 17 | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon | 11 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | - |
Milwaukee Bucks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jrue Holiday * | 38 | 8-17 | 3-8 | 6-6 | 6 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 27 | - | |
| Khris Middleton * | 36 | 8-20 | 4-8 | 6-6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 14 | - | |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo * | 34 | 9-20 | 1-4 | 9-11 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 28 | 33 | - | |
| Bobby Portis * | 31 | 6-12 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 15 | - | |
| Grayson Allen * | 23 | 4-7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 10 | - | |
| Wesley Matthews | 28 | 1-6 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | - | |
| Serge Ibaka | 18 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | - | |
| Jevon Carter | 11 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - | |
| DeAndre' Bembry | 11 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | |
| Jordan Nwora | 5 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | - |
* = starter