Model Predictions
| Model | San Antonio Spurs | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 68.4% | 31.6% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 35.2% | 64.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 29.8% | 70.2% | +4.7 | ✓ (0.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 42.4% | 57.6% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 32.7% | 67.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 32.1% | 67.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 32.1% | 67.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 33.4% | 66.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +4 (133-129). Predictions use season-end ratings.
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Jones * | 35 | 9-13 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 6 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 19 | - | - | |
| Keita Bates-Diop * | 34 | 9-10 | 3-3 | 1-2 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 22 | - | - | |
| Devin Vassell * | 27 | 8-17 | 3-6 | 3-3 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 22 | - | - | |
| Doug McDermott * | 19 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Zach Collins * | 17 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Josh Richardson | 26 | 4-8 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Jock Landale | 25 | 5-11 | 1-6 | 3-3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Lonnie Walker IV | 23 | 8-14 | 4-6 | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 | - | - | |
| Joshua Primo | 15 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 4-5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Devontae Cacok | 12 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Joe Wieskamp | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo * | 34 | 14-21 | 0-0 | 8-12 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 36 | - | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 34 | 4-8 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 29 | 7-11 | 1-2 | 12-15 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 27 | - | - | |
| P.J. Tucker * | 18 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 17 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 33 | 11-19 | 4-9 | 1-4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 27 | - | - | |
| Caleb Martin | 29 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 27 | 4-9 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon | 13 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | - | - |
* = starter