Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Charlotte Hornets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 53.5% | 46.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 61.5% | 38.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 66.1% | 33.9% | -3.7 | ✓ (0.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 53.3% | 46.7% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 62.1% | 37.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 65.2% | 34.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 65.4% | 34.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 55.6% | 44.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Charlotte Hornets -4 (107-111). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Butler * | 51 | 5-24 | 1-8 | 4-4 | 10 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 12 | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 46 | 9-16 | 6-11 | 1-2 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 25 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 44 | 6-13 | 6-13 | 3-3 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 17 | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 43 | 5-12 | 0-1 | 5-10 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 24 | - | |
| P.J. Tucker * | 43 | 6-12 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 16 | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 18 | 2-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - | |
| Omer Yurtseven | 14 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 11 | - | |
| Max Strus | 13 | 1-6 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 13 | 2-7 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -1 | - |
Charlotte Hornets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Bridges * | 49 | 10-21 | 3-10 | 6-7 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 21 | - | |
| P.J. Washington * | 48 | 6-15 | 0-4 | 3-4 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 18 | - | |
| LaMelo Ball * | 38 | 5-15 | 1-9 | 3-4 | 10 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 24 | - | |
| Terry Rozier * | 36 | 2-9 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | - | |
| Mason Plumlee * | 13 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | - | |
| Montrezl Harrell | 42 | 9-16 | 0-0 | 6-9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 18 | - | |
| Kelly Oubre Jr. | 38 | 5-15 | 4-12 | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 6 | - | |
| JT Thor | 15 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | - | |
| James Bouknight | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - |
* = starter