Model Predictions
| Model | Dallas Mavericks | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 42.5% | 57.5% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 41.7% | 58.3% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 39.4% | 60.6% | +2.4 | ✗ (10.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 46.3% | 53.7% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 42.6% | 57.4% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 46.8% | 53.2% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 46.9% | 53.1% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 42.8% | 57.2% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Miami Heat -8 (99-107). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Brunson * | 38 | 6-14 | 3-5 | 4-5 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 19 | - | - | |
| Luka Doncic * | 38 | 5-19 | 2-7 | 9-12 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 21 | - | - | |
| Dorian Finney-Smith * | 35 | 5-9 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | - | - | |
| Dwight Powell * | 25 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Josh Green * | 20 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Maxi Kleber | 34 | 5-10 | 3-8 | 6-8 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 19 | - | - | |
| Spencer Dinwiddie | 23 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Davis Bertans | 13 | 4-8 | 3-7 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Sterling Brown | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Frank Ntilikina | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry * | 38 | 4-8 | 2-2 | 3-4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 37 | 8-18 | 0-2 | 13-14 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 29 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 33 | 10-19 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 21 | - | - | |
| P.J. Tucker * | 30 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 20 | 2-6 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 29 | 1-9 | 0-7 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Max Strus | 20 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 15 | 2-6 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Omer Yurtseven | 14 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | - | - |
* = starter