Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | New Orleans Pelicans | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 59.1% | 40.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 59.3% | 40.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 65.3% | 34.7% | -3.5 | ✓ (11.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 53.9% | 46.1% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 65.3% | 34.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 64.5% | 35.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 64.4% | 35.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 55.8% | 44.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: New Orleans Pelicans -15 (97-112). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry * | 36 | 5-9 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 11 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 14 | 31 | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 35 | 13-21 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 29 | 22 | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 35 | 9-16 | 0-1 | 11-11 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 29 | 29 | - | |
| P.J. Tucker * | 26 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 24 | 4-12 | 2-10 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 30 | 1-6 | 1-4 | 3-3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | - | |
| Max Strus | 27 | 2-6 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon | 17 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 5-6 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 15 | - | |
| Omer Yurtseven | 5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | - | |
| Kyle Guy | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
New Orleans Pelicans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ McCollum * | 37 | 6-21 | 2-10 | 1-2 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 7 | - | |
| Brandon Ingram * | 33 | 6-12 | 1-3 | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 8 | - | |
| Jonas Valanciunas * | 33 | 6-8 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 21 | - | |
| Devonte' Graham * | 31 | 6-15 | 4-11 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 12 | - | |
| Herbert Jones * | 28 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 3-3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 12 | - | |
| Gary Clark | 19 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | - | |
| Jose Alvarado | 19 | 7-12 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 7 | - | |
| Jaxson Hayes | 16 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - | |
| Garrett Temple | 12 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | - | |
| Naji Marshall | 6 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | - |
* = starter