Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Washington Wizards | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 64.8% | 35.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 64.6% | 35.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 76.7% | 23.3% | -6.6 | ✓ (14.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 57.3% | 42.7% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 73.0% | 27.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 73.1% | 26.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 73.1% | 26.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 62.2% | 37.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Washington Wizards -21 (100-121). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry * | 30 | 4-6 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 29 | 7-13 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 19 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 28 | 4-10 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 24 | 7-11 | 0-0 | 7-8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 21 | - | - | |
| P.J. Tucker * | 22 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 28 | 6-9 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Max Strus | 24 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | - | - | |
| Caleb Martin | 21 | 5-8 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon | 15 | 4-6 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Omer Yurtseven | 7 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Kyle Guy | 6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | - | - |
Washington Wizards
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Holiday * | 27 | 5-10 | 1-4 | 3-4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Kyle Kuzma * | 26 | 4-9 | 1-5 | 3-3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Spencer Dinwiddie * | 25 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope * | 22 | 3-11 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Thomas Bryant * | 22 | 3-5 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Rui Hachimura | 26 | 4-10 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Corey Kispert | 25 | 9-15 | 1-6 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 20 | - | - | |
| Deni Avdija | 25 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Montrezl Harrell | 17 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Raul Neto | 12 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Davis Bertans | 5 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Anthony Gill | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter