Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Toronto Raptors | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 36.2% | 63.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 46.1% | 53.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 49.1% | 50.9% | +0.2 | ✓ (3.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 49.9% | 50.1% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 56.9% | 43.1% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 56.3% | 43.7% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 56.3% | 43.7% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 49.4% | 50.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Toronto Raptors +4 (110-106). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Butler * | 40 | 3-10 | 0-3 | 10-10 | 8 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| P.J. Tucker * | 36 | 5-11 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 35 | 13-17 | 0-1 | 6-7 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 32 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent * | 24 | 1-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 14 | 1-6 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Max Strus | 33 | 3-7 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 28 | 7-12 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Caleb Martin | 14 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon | 12 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - | - |
Toronto Raptors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Barnes * | 41 | 5-13 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Gary Trent Jr. * | 40 | 11-20 | 6-10 | 5-8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 33 | - | - | |
| Fred VanVleet * | 38 | 5-11 | 2-6 | 9-11 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 21 | - | - | |
| OG Anunoby * | 35 | 6-10 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Pascal Siakam * | 34 | 5-14 | 1-3 | 5-7 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Precious Achiuwa | 19 | 5-7 | 2-3 | 0-2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | - | - | |
| Chris Boucher | 17 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | - | - | |
| Dalano Banton | 7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Justin Champagnie | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter