Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Atlanta Hawks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 39.7% | 60.3% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 47.5% | 52.5% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 49.4% | 50.6% | +0.1 | ✗ (24.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 50.8% | 49.2% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 56.9% | 43.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 58.6% | 41.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 58.6% | 41.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 50.6% | 49.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Atlanta Hawks -24 (91-115). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Martin * | 32 | 8-16 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Omer Yurtseven * | 28 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 13 | - | - | |
| P.J. Tucker * | 27 | 4-9 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 27 | 2-9 | 1-5 | 3-4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Max Strus * | 15 | 3-7 | 3-6 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 35 | 9-19 | 1-6 | 2-2 | 9 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 21 | - | - | |
| Duncan Robinson | 31 | 4-11 | 3-10 | 3-3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 20 | 5-8 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon | 17 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | - | - | |
| Kyle Guy | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Chris Silva | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Atlanta Hawks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Collins * | 32 | 6-9 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Trae Young * | 32 | 4-15 | 1-6 | 6-7 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic * | 31 | 6-14 | 3-11 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 15 | - | - | |
| Onyeka Okongwu * | 24 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-4 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | - | - | |
| Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot * | 12 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | - | - | |
| Kevin Huerter | 32 | 2-9 | 0-5 | 3-4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Danilo Gallinari | 26 | 3-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| De'Andre Hunter | 24 | 4-11 | 3-4 | 4-4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 | - | - | |
| Delon Wright | 15 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Sharife Cooper | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Skylar Mays | 2 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Gorgui Dieng | 2 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - |
* = starter