Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Golden State Warriors | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 28.1% | 71.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 36.4% | 63.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 30.9% | 69.1% | +4.4 | ✓ (2.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 46.0% | 54.0% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 41.7% | 58.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 41.7% | 58.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 41.6% | 58.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 40.1% | 59.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Golden State Warriors +7 (115-108). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro * | 41 | 7-23 | 4-13 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 18 | - | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 38 | 4-13 | 2-9 | 6-7 | 6 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Caleb Martin * | 35 | 8-14 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 19 | - | - | |
| Omer Yurtseven * | 33 | 2-7 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 27 | 7-14 | 2-3 | 6-6 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 22 | - | - | |
| P.J. Tucker | 27 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Kyle Guy | 25 | 5-11 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | - | - | |
| Chris Silva | 10 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - | - |
Golden State Warriors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draymond Green * | 36 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 8 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 5 | - | - | |
| Andrew Wiggins * | 34 | 8-13 | 2-4 | 4-4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 22 | - | - | |
| Stephen Curry * | 32 | 3-17 | 1-10 | 2-2 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | - | - | |
| Gary Payton II * | 30 | 7-12 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 14 | - | - | |
| Kevon Looney * | 25 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Jordan Poole | 26 | 12-17 | 5-9 | 3-5 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 32 | - | - | |
| Otto Porter Jr. | 18 | 4-10 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Damion Lee | 10 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Nemanja Bjelica | 10 | 4-8 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Juan Toscano-Anderson | 8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Jonathan Kuminga | 6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Quinndary Weatherspoon | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter