Model Predictions
| Model | Denver Nuggets | Dallas Mavericks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 65.4% | 34.6% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 51.5% | 48.5% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 48.8% | 51.2% | +0.3 | ✓ (13.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 44.5% | 55.5% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 41.7% | 58.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 36.5% | 63.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 36.5% | 63.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 37.1% | 62.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Dallas Mavericks +14 (103-89). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic * | 34 | 11-18 | 1-4 | 4-4 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 27 | - | - | |
| Aaron Gordon * | 33 | 7-9 | 1-3 | 0-4 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Will Barton * | 32 | 4-12 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 12 | - | - | |
| Facundo Campazzo * | 32 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 3-5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 | - | - | |
| Austin Rivers * | 18 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Davon Reed | 26 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Bones Hyland | 25 | 3-9 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Vlatko Cancar | 11 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| JaMychal Green | 11 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 6-6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Bol Bol | 6 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Rayjon Tucker | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Carlik Jones | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Petr Cornelie | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - |
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Brunson * | 33 | 4-14 | 2-4 | 3-3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Luka Doncic * | 33 | 7-18 | 1-6 | 6-8 | 8 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 21 | - | - | |
| Maxi Kleber * | 30 | 3-7 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 | - | - | |
| Dwight Powell * | 26 | 5-6 | 1-1 | 4-4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Dorian Finney-Smith * | 18 | 4-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | - | - | |
| Reggie Bullock | 28 | 5-11 | 4-8 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 21 | 2-8 | 1-4 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | - | - | |
| Josh Green | 16 | 3-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Marquese Chriss | 15 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | - | - | |
| Sterling Brown | 10 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Frank Ntilikina | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Theo Pinson | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter