Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Sacramento Kings | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 53.6% | 46.4% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 53.5% | 46.5% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 59.5% | 40.5% | -2.1 | ✗ (4.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 58.7% | 41.3% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 77.7% | 22.3% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 75.7% | 24.3% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 75.7% | 24.3% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 64.2% | 35.8% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Sacramento Kings +2 (115-113). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Butler * | 36 | 9-22 | 1-6 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 10 | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 36 | 5-11 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 5 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 21 | - | |
| Tyler Herro * | 35 | 8-23 | 4-11 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 7 | - | |
| Omer Yurtseven * | 34 | 11-18 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 21 | - | |
| Caleb Martin * | 33 | 6-13 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 13 | - | |
| Kyle Guy | 23 | 3-8 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 15 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | |
| Chris Silva | 12 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 | - | |
| Nik Stauskas | 12 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | - |
Sacramento Kings
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrese Haliburton * | 35 | 3-6 | 1-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 18 | - | |
| De'Aaron Fox * | 35 | 5-12 | 0-4 | 14-15 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 24 | 26 | - | |
| Harrison Barnes * | 29 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 | - | |
| Damian Jones * | 29 | 7-10 | 0-2 | 4-7 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 21 | - | |
| Marvin Bagley III * | 20 | 2-9 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | - | |
| Buddy Hield | 33 | 9-18 | 7-14 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 17 | - | |
| Davion Mitchell | 18 | 5-7 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 6 | - | |
| Alex Len | 16 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | - | |
| Chimezie Metu | 14 | 3-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7 | - | |
| Maurice Harkless | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | |
| Tristan Thompson | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter