Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Houston Rockets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 37.0% | 63.0% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 51.6% | 48.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 51.2% | 48.8% | -0.3 | ✓ (9.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 64.6% | 35.4% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 84.1% | 15.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 82.3% | 17.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 82.4% | 17.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 71.6% | 28.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Houston Rockets -10 (110-120). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro * | 37 | 5-17 | 1-9 | 5-7 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 14 | - | |
| Caleb Martin * | 37 | 4-9 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 9 | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 36 | 3-11 | 2-7 | 4-5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 9 | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 35 | 12-21 | 2-3 | 11-11 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 37 | 22 | - | |
| Omer Yurtseven * | 29 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 18 | - | |
| Kyle Guy | 23 | 6-8 | 4-6 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 20 | - | |
| Haywood Highsmith | 14 | 3-4 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6 | - | |
| Chris Silva | 14 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | - | |
| Nik Stauskas | 10 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 3-4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | - |
Houston Rockets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Wood * | 34 | 8-14 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 18 | - | |
| Kevin Porter Jr. * | 30 | 3-11 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 6 | - | |
| Jalen Green * | 27 | 5-11 | 2-7 | 4-4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 10 | - | |
| Eric Gordon * | 26 | 5-11 | 3-8 | 2-2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 9 | - | |
| David Nwaba * | 20 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 12 | - | |
| Josh Christopher | 24 | 3-10 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 7 | - | |
| Jae'Sean Tate | 24 | 9-15 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 19 | - | |
| Armoni Brooks | 22 | 2-6 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | - | |
| Kenyon Martin Jr. | 13 | 2-7 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | - | |
| Alperen Sengun | 6 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 3-4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 8 | - | |
| Trevelin Queen | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | |
| Daishen Nix | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter