Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | San Antonio Spurs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 18.8% | 81.2% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 50.9% | 49.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 52.9% | 47.1% | -0.6 | ✓ (16.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 51.6% | 48.4% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 61.3% | 38.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 61.9% | 38.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 61.9% | 38.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 53.6% | 46.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: San Antonio Spurs -17 (95-112). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duncan Robinson * | 34 | 5-10 | 4-8 | 3-3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 17 | - | - | |
| Bam Adebayo * | 30 | 7-13 | 0-1 | 4-6 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 25 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Jimmy Butler * | 25 | 7-14 | 0-1 | 3-3 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17 | - | - | |
| P.J. Tucker * | 23 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 31 | 11-20 | 0-5 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 24 | - | - | |
| Gabe Vincent | 24 | 3-7 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | - | - | |
| Max Strus | 16 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon | 14 | 3-6 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | - | - | |
| Kyle Guy | 6 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - | - | |
| Chris Silva | 6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Jones * | 35 | 5-10 | 0-1 | 6-8 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Thaddeus Young * | 24 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Keldon Johnson * | 23 | 3-12 | 1-8 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Devin Vassell * | 22 | 2-9 | 1-6 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Derrick White * | 21 | 7-11 | 4-7 | 4-4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22 | - | - | |
| Lonnie Walker IV | 26 | 2-10 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Joshua Primo | 26 | 1-13 | 0-6 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | - | - | |
| Juancho Hernangomez | 21 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | - | - | |
| Drew Eubanks | 17 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | - | - | |
| Joe Wieskamp | 10 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - | - | |
| Devontae Cacok | 8 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 4-7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | - | - |
* = starter