Model Predictions
| Model | Detroit Pistons | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 70.2% | 29.8% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 34.9% | 65.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 28.0% | 72.0% | +5.2 | ✓ (2.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 30.3% | 69.7% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 11.5% | 88.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 13.1% | 86.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 13.0% | 87.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 20.3% | 79.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +3 (115-112). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Detroit Pistons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saddiq Bey * | 43 | 7-13 | 4-8 | 5-5 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 26 | - | |
| Cory Joseph * | 42 | 7-15 | 5-7 | 2-2 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 22 | - | |
| Frank Jackson * | 39 | 6-15 | 4-10 | 3-3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 11 | - | |
| Trey Lyles * | 37 | 7-13 | 3-7 | 11-11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 28 | 30 | - | |
| Hamidou Diallo * | 34 | 5-12 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 13 | - | |
| Josh Jackson | 21 | 2-8 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | - | |
| Jamorko Pickett | 15 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - | |
| Luka Garza | 4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | - | |
| Cheick Diallo | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Strus * | 40 | 10-18 | 5-11 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 16 | - | |
| Kyle Lowry * | 37 | 9-15 | 2-5 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 17 | - | |
| Gabe Vincent * | 33 | 5-9 | 1-4 | 4-4 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 17 | - | |
| Duncan Robinson * | 21 | 0-6 | 0-5 | 3-3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - | |
| Dewayne Dedmon * | 5 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | - | |
| Tyler Herro | 34 | 11-21 | 3-5 | 4-5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 29 | 17 | - | |
| Omer Yurtseven | 24 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 14 | - | |
| Marcus Garrett | 19 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - | |
| Udonis Haslem | 11 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 | - | |
| KZ Okpala | 11 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | - |
* = starter